Balancing scarce hospital resources during the COVID-19 pandemic using discrete-event simulation

Abstract COVID-19 has disrupted healthcare operations and resulted in large-scale cancellations of elective surgery. Hospitals throughout the world made life-altering resource allocation decisions prioritised care patients. Without effective models to evaluate strategies encompassing non-COVID-19 care, hospitals face risk making sub-optimal local decisions. A discrete-event-simulation model is proposed this paper describe COVID-19, surgery, emergency surgery patient flows. COVID-19-specific flows a surgical flow network were constructed based on data 475 patients 28,831 Addenbrooke’s hospital UK. The enabled evaluation three strategies, for two wave scenarios: proactive cancellation reactive ring-fencing operating theatre capacity. results suggest that strategy outperforms other regardless scenario, terms total direct deaths number surgeries performed. However, does come at cost 50% more critical rejections. In aggregate performance, prioritising no longer favourable if than 7.3% can be considered life-saving. Additionally, demonstrates impact timely preparation staff availability, ability treat during pandemic. aid worldwide pandemics disasters, their identify effect redefining prioritisation